![]() So, to summarize:ĭEFCON 5 = "Highly Unlikely." There are zero indications of an imminent nuclear event (but the world is still a fucked up place and people are killing other people en masse every day).ĭEFCON 4 = "Unlikely." Something has our attention, but a nuclear event is still not something we are concerned about.ĭEFCON 3 = "Possible." A nuclear event has moved from the realm of "unlikely" to "possible," but is still not imminent. At DEFCON 1 it is "imminent" or already occurring. It's not until we reach DEFCON 3 that we're seeing concerning indications that a nuclear event may be brewing, but it's still not "imminent." A DEFCON 2 a nuclear attack is more likely, but still might be days away. DEFCON 5 simply means we see no indications of an imminent nuclear event. This reduces the chances of their use.ĥ: Probably the most important concept to understand is that of an "imminent nuclear event." The biggest mistake people make with our levels is that DEFCON 5 = World Peace. Only one participant in both conflicts has nuclear weapons. Right now, this is the case with both Israel and Ukraine. We follow the same philosophy for our levels.Ĥ: Conventional conflicts not involving two nuclear-armed states will most likely not affect the DEFCON level. The US military would never be able to sustain DEFCON 2 for over a year, for instance, regardless of what some of our competitors might say. The higher the alert level goes, the harder it is on both men and machines. It's just that simple.ģ: With the exception of DEFCON 5, US military DEFCON levels are not designed to be maintained in perpetuity. They have access to intelligence that we don't. Our level is for members of the public to make informed decisions about taking care of themselves and their families if there is an attack.Ģ: It is entirely possible for the military's DEFCON level to be higher or lower than ours. The military level is all about responding militarily to a possible nuclear attack on the United States. Okay, so let's clear this up once and for all.ġ: Our DEFCON level is meant for the general public, not the US military. Maybe your conflating Defcon Level with US military posture. There is nothing really waiting to be checked off of the nuclear escalation ladder.īut there are a shit ton of players pieces on the battlefield. You don’t escalate to the use of them just because some arch-duke a and so was assassinated in Sarajevo. There is obviously a heightened risk currently that the war in Ukraine might expand into larger regional conflict (not even speculating here what that might be).īut after two years of war in Ukraine I would hope by now we can finally put to rest fear or speculation that any form of Russian/NATO conflict in Eastern Europe is by default going to result in nuclear Armageddon.Īnd just as you don’t detonate them with a simple blasting cap. It’s a mistake because it’s trying to apply a non-conventional response to a conventional incident or event. Well no, things do not automatically extrapolate from heightens defense posture to increased Defcon level. Is the US and NATO military “posture” elevated? WFS of course they are, just as most every industrialized nation are also elevated.īut does this elevated military posture translate automatically to a heightened DECON Level. Or, more than likely just rungs on a ladder we’ve been led to believe matter. Or are they critical incidents events that define themselves? How serious are they, are they unprecedented? This entire effort to try and tease out what the US Governments Defcon Level is often times more just an exercise in the attempt to define what the current diplomatic and conflict incidents and events are. ![]() If the defcon levels are “different” between our site and the government, then what criteria makes up that difference?Ĭlick to expand.Maybe your conflating Defcon Level with US military posture. If your intel says DEFCON 5, then cool, but it sounds like you guys know the government is likely at a higher state of nuclear readiness than normal peacetime operations. We aren’t the government, but the goal of this site is to use all available intel to try to understand the real DEFCON level and warn the public appropriately. I’m not staff, so I don’t know how you guys weigh your decisions, but this site should be at 4. If we are at 5, it makes me feel like we are asleep at the wheel. This is why I am saying there is no way the US government is at normal peacetime operations (DEFCON 5) given the state of affairs. If you guys were at 3 or 4 during that time, wouldn’t that be potentially misleading to the public? This is where it gets sketchy with DWS because the staff is looking at things one way, but the government is looking at things another way. When the gulf war hit, yeah the US went to DEFCON 2, but that’s nearly maximum nuclear readiness. If the defcon levels are “different” between our site and the government, then what criteria makes up that difference?
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